29 August 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham

Previous Match Infographics: Burnley (a), Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


Liverpool v Tottenham. Klopp v Pochettino. It's closely contested, it's narrow, it's hard fought. Both teams have chances to win. Neither one does.

If it's any consolation, this was the best Liverpool performance against Tottenham in the three meetings since Klopp took over.



It's the first time Liverpool took more shots than Tottenham. The first time Liverpool took more in-box shots than Tottenham (and vastly more). The first time Liverpool's registered a larger Expected Goals total, and again, by a decent margin. The first time either side's converted a clear-cut chance in this fixture. The first time Liverpool's had a higher pass accuracy than Tottenham.

Pity that Liverpool didn't win, eh?

One of the more impressive features was how quiet Lovren and Matip kept Harry Kane. The striker took four shots and created two chances in last season's meeting at White Hart Lane (the most shots in the match), and took four shots and created three chances in last season's match at Anfield – including scoring the equalizer.

Kane took zero shots and created zero chances on Saturday. Liverpool were helped by his position, used as the second striker after Janssen came on – a position he's still acclimatizing to – but it's impressive nonetheless. And it bodes well for the future of the Lovren-Matip center-back partnership. Especially considering that Janssen, Tottenham's out-and-out striker for more than an hour, didn't take a shot or create a chance either.

That said, it's not so cool (© Klopp) that Liverpool once again had a lead in a close game but conceded an equalizer.



Eight league matches where a potential win became either a loss or draw, as well as two Europa League matches – one where Liverpool weren't punished because of a miraculous second leg, the other the soul-crushing final. Eight of those 11 equalizers coming in the second half, all but one after Liverpool had taken a lead into halftime.

You can't expect Liverpool to keep a lead in all of those matches. Shit happens, and there are some good sides on that list, including Saturday's opponent. And it has gotten marginally, slowly better: more of those matches came in the first half of Klopp's tenure, Liverpool impressively held onto and/or extended leads against Stoke, Everton, Villarreal, and Watford in last season's run-in as well as Arsenal two weeks ago.

But it's still an area which needs a lot of improvement. Despite clear (if slower than we'd like) progress, there are still multiple areas which need improvement.

Had you offered four points from trips to Arsenal and Tottenham three weeks ago, we'd all probably have taken it. Happily. Almost all the areas of concern were better on Saturday: a more cohesive and secure midfield, a more disciplined performance from Jordan Henderson, a stronger defense, Milner's contribution both in defense and attack from left-back. Liverpool did well to get shots in dangerous positions, Liverpool limited the opposition's shots from similar areas. Liverpool pressed well from the front – against a side that's quite good at eluding the opposition's press – and Liverpool usually avoided Tottenham's press, limiting mistakes and give-aways when playing out from the back, something that's gone terribly wrong at least once in each of the previous league matches.

It's the third game of the season, and we're seeing progress, at least in two of them. With a couple of very important new players, a new formation, etc.; as Paul Tomkins necessarily wrote this weekend, these things take time.

The performance was good – heartening, even – and the result was okay. Take that and move on.

The loss to Burnley remains the outlier. I'm a broken record here – and, unfortunately, will probably continue to be so – but the performance and result at Burnley is what most dramatically needs improving.

27 August 2016

Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham

Goals:
Milner 43' [pen]
Rose 72'

There's surprisingly not a whole lot to take from that. We didn't learn much we didn't already know, and we'll all end up picking our favorite narrative.

- Two teams that usually cancel each other out ended up canceling each other out, for the third consecutive draw between Klopp and Pochettino's sides.

- Liverpool should've won but didn't, unable to take their better chances until Milner's 43rd-minute penalty, then unable to stretch or hold onto a 1-0 lead. And it's not as if that's a new phenomenon.

- Liverpool were a lot better than against Burnley and, aside from that 20-minute miraculous stretch which won the match, arguably against Arsenal. Obviously less potent, but much more cohesive and secure in midfield and defense.

- But, again, as said after the win at Arsenal, these aren't the matches where Liverpool play poorly or underwhelm. These matches are most assuredly not the problem.

- Liverpool remain kind of bananas, and still look likely to kill us all before the end of the season.

So be it.

After a frightening end-to-end opening 10 minutes, Liverpool settled into control. If not for Michel Vorm, they could have been three up by the half-hour mark: a smart kick-save on Coutinho's poorly-placed clear-cut chance, then twice quick off his line to deny the blistering pace of an in-behind Sadio Mané.

Liverpool were pressing exceptionally well – today is the best evidence of why Klopp's persisting with Firmino as the #9 as you'll get. Liverpool were controlling tenor and tempo. Liverpool were exploiting Tottenham's high back line, against a defense that's usually excellent at limiting opportunities. Liverpool denied Tottenham any true chances, the defense and midfield much more solid than we'd seen, with Jöel Matip a clear improvement.

Liverpool just couldn't get the ball into the net, until Firmino won a soft penalty (but still a penalty!) three minutes before halftime, which Milner coolly converted.

It was little surprise to see Tottenham better in the second half. It took 10 minutes – 10 minutes where Liverpool could have extended its lead, only to see Matip head a corner off the crossbar and Lallana maybe an inch offside maybe an inch onside on a blitzkrieg counter from Dier's giveaway – but it was inevitable, exactly as happened when these sides met at Anfield a little less than four months ago.

Increasingly pushed back, Liverpool needed Mignolet to save two set play efforts, first from Lamela then brilliantly on Alderweireld's header. Milner's last ditch tackle stifled an unnecessary Tottenham counter.

But then the bad happened. Dier, in behind Milner on a ball over the top (and barely onside) after a long spell of mostly painless Tottenham possession, with time to cross. Lamela's outstandingly won flicked header over both Clyne and Lallana, Rose in space with those two players both marking Lamela and Mané slow to track back, well-taken at the near post. A few Liverpool defenders could have done better, but it's a good goal featuring good play from good players. It happens.

There were frights, but Liverpool, as they're prone to do, did decently to shut up shop after conceding. Tottenham had a mountain more possession, but I'm struggling to think of chances aside from Alderweireld's not-close set play header and Wanyama's very not-close shot from very far away.

Liverpool, once again, had the better opportunities, all from counter-attacks or pressing: Firmino well blocked by Dier in the 80th minute, Wijnaldum's effort deflected into a save for Vorm in the 90th, a slightly-too-slow counter from pressing ending with Lallana denied by Alderweireld. Regrettable, but again, it happens. We all have a tendency to forget when Liverpool impress but don't take all three points, but Tottenham are a good team, especially at the back.

My only real complaint, and it's a hindsight complaint, is the handling of substitutions. Coutinho, doubtful leading up the match, probably had to come off; it's unfortunate coincidence that Tottenham's goal came less than three minutes later. We've seen Origi preferred off the bench before. Klopp seems to prefer his pace when Liverpool are resigned to or forced to play on the counter. But you're not taking your chances and you've got an elite goalscorer on the bench. Don't over-think it.

Use Daniel Sturridge much more than you're using Daniel Sturridge.

So here we are, back where we started. Liverpool can play well, but sometimes Liverpool don't get the results that their play "deserves." Liverpool's midfield might actually coalesce. Liverpool's defense looks a lot better when Jöel Matip plays, and goal aside, Milner did pretty well at left-back. Liverpool can create chances, and sometimes Liverpool are utterly ruthless – see: Arsenal, Burton – but Liverpool still don't take their chances enough. Liverpool still struggle to hold onto a lead. Liverpool should have more points than they do after three matches.

We knew all of these things. It's the third league match, and Liverpool's shown promise in two of them. Liverpool can get a lot better. Liverpool need to get a lot better. But Liverpool need to prove more against the Burnleys of the world than the Tottenhams.

26 August 2016

Liverpool at Tottenham 08.27.16

7:30am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
1-1 (h) 04.02.16
0-0 (a) 10.17.15
3-2 Liverpool (h) 02.10.15
3-0 Liverpool (a) 08.31.14

Last matches:
Liverpool: 5-0 Burton Albion (a); 0-2 Burnley (a); 4-3 Arsenal (a)
Tottenham: 1-0 Palace (h); 1-1 Everton (a)

Referee: Bobby Madley

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Matip Lovren Milner
Lallana Henderson Wijnaldum
Mané Sturridge Firmino

Let's assume the three players struggling with minor injuries – Coutinho, Can, and Origi – won't start. It seems a safe assumption. It's too early in the season for risks, no matter the opposition, and especially given those players' importance. There's an international break next week, giving them time to recover. And, because Liverpool, it's just easier to assume the worst.

It's also safe to assume Liverpool will persist with the 4-3-3 formation we've seen in every match so far. But there are questions in each section of the pitch. Again, because Liverpool.

The most worrying component is the one with the fewest options. With Can out, the midfield will almost certainly be Henderson behind Lallana and Wijnaldum. Again. Which was a midfield both good and bad against Arsenal, and bad and bad against Burnley. It's lightweight but full of running. It's often not creative enough, at least in tight spaces, but more than capable of breaking opposition lines if given room. Jordan Henderson's not a defensive midfielder, at least not yet, but still seems a safer option than Kevin Stewart. There might be a real, honest-to-goodness midfield in there, but it needs time, and we've always found it tough to give Liverpool time. Tottenham certainly won't give them time.

With Origi and Coutinho out, it pretty much has to be Firmino, Sturridge, and Mané in attack. The only other option – again, if we're not changing formations – is Lallana in attack and Stewart behind Henderson and Wijnaldum in midfield. But the question remains how those players line up. I'm well aware of Klopp's quotes about the irrelevancy of starting positions, but I still think that it makes a difference whether Sturridge initially begins on the right or through the middle: whether he's on the shoulder of the center-backs, dropping into midfield to pick up possession, or needing to track back against the opposition's wingers and full-backs. Players will interchange throughout, and with time – like Liverpool's midfield – it's certainly capable of becoming more cohesive and effective. But, as of now, it makes a difference whether it's Firmino central, Mané left, and Sturridge right or Sturridge central, Firmino left, and Mané right.

And in defense, it'll be either Matip or Klavan partnering Lovren at center-back and Milner or Moreno at left-back. As with everywhere else, there are pros and cons to each decision. Klavan's usually appeared the "safer" option, but then you re-watch Burnley's second goal last week. Matip's untested in the Premier League, and also forces Lovren to play at left center-back, where he's often vsatly less reliable. Moreno's almost always good for at least one jaw-dropping mistake, but at least he's an actual left-back who's played well in all four of his previous appearances against Spurs. Finally, the above predicted back four – Clyne, Matip, Lovren, Milner – are all right-footed. That's obviously concerning.

*throws arms into the air resignedly*

As always, it's less about which players are on the pitch and more about what said players do on said pitch. It's an easy sport, yeah?

Meanwhile, Tottenham have a few concerns of their own. They haven't impressed in either match, but remain unbeaten – a 1-1 comeback draw at Everton followed by a late 1-0 win against Crystal Palace. Lloris is still out with a hamstring injury. Dembele's suspended for two more matches. Dele Alli has struggled with illness this week, left out of the XI against Palace before coming on for the final half an hour.

Unsurprisingly, Tottenham's XI is much easier to predict than Liverpool's. Vorm; Walker, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose; Dier, Wanyama; Lamela, Alli, Eriksen; Kane. The one question is whether it's Alli behind Kane or Kane behind Vincent Janssen. Despite the narrow victory, Janssen impressed when leading the line last weekend, on the end of Tottenham's best chances before Wanyama's set play winner.

Spurs have struggled to score this season, tallying just once in each of their matches. It is, after all, a slightly revamped attack, at least when Janssen plays and Kane – well on his way to becoming Teddy Sheringham 2.0 – necessarily drops deeper. But they've remained near-impeccable at the back, last season's best defensive side continuing to impress, the best center-back pairing in the league combined with surprisingly improved full-backs.

Tottenham and Liverpool have cancelled each other out in previous meetings – funhouse mirror versions of their opponents; squint hard enough and they look alike. To be sure, there are distinct differences. Tottenham, now in Pochettino's third season, are much more cohesive and consistent. They prefer a bit more control. They're almost always more defensively secure. Liverpool are wilder, for better and worse, potentially destructive on the counter-attack but potentially self-destructive in defense.

But both sides are insane workers. Both rely on a heavy press. Both sides usually make it hard for the other to play how they want to play, at least if they want to play on the front foot. And it led to 0-0 at White Hart Lane and 1-1 at Anfield last season, both matches with barely an inch of difference between the two sides.

So, which Liverpool are we going to get? August isn't even over yet and we've bounced from high to low to high to low, stretching back to the end of preseason. 4-0 against Barca followed by 0-4 against Mainz; 4-3 at Arsenal followed by 0-2 at Burnley followed by 5-0 at Burton Albion. If this roller coaster continues, none of us will make it to May.

If the pattern holds, we're in for a long 90 minutes. It's up to Liverpool to break the wheel before it becomes even more concrete, against one of the league's toughest sides to break.

22 August 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 0-2 Burnley

Previous Match Infographics: Arsenal (a)

All match data from Stats Zone and Who Scored.


No side can go from "We gonna win the league!" to "The sky is falling!" as fast as Liverpool.

We are damaged as a fanbase.

Admittedly, that was bad. Really bad. It was everything Liverpool did badly in similar matches last season taken to the extreme. An inability to score despite an overwhelming disparity in chances. Unpromising chances created despite multiple shots. A reliance on speculative shots from distance. Dismal shooting accuracy. An early, avoidable goal conceded through an error allowing the opposition to bunker in even tighter; a second goal conceded on a counter-attack to put the match further out of reach. Two goals conceded from three shots – the joint-fewest allowed against any opponent since Klopp took over – with all three from outside the box. It was Liverpool's highest passing and possession totals under Klopp, and Liverpool failed to score. Failed to come close to scoring.

But Liverpool were never going to be fixed in two matches. In less than a season under Jürgen Klopp. It takes time, as much as we'd prefer that it didn't. It took Klopp time at Dortmund, and it takes time for any team to adjust to the type of style that Klopp wants to play.




Saturday was just the second match of the season. It's just the second time we've seen this new 4-3-3 formation. It's the second time that Lovren and Klavan have played together, and also the second time Henderson has been used as the sole deep-lying midfielder. It's the second time that Milner's played at left-back for Liverpool. It's Wijnaldum's second match for Liverpool. Etc., etc.

It is still safe to assume that things will get better, as hard as that might be after that result.

That said, it's not as if we haven't seen these issues before.



Dan's tweet includes cup matches against City and United – two wins and a draw (well, a loss on penalties), conceding just two goals. For consistency's sake, let's just look at the league results.




The above table includes Tottenham, City, Chelsea, and Arsenal home and away, and United at home in the "Big Five"; Newcastle and Watford home and away, and Norwich, Villa, Bournemouth, and Burnley away in "Promoted and Relegated."

It doesn't make for good reading.

There's Liverpool's inability to prevent goals by lesser opposition. There's the goal difference against those opponents; if not for the 6-0 win at a horrific Aston Villa, Liverpool's goal difference would be -3 against promoted and relegated clubs. There's Liverpool's shot creation and accuracy against that opposition. There's that 44% (!!!) save accuracy against those opponents – 14 goals from 25 shots on-target. There's Liverpool's inability to save the opposition's fewer clear-cut chances.

There's the fact that Liverpool have conceded three more goals in the eight matches against promoted and relegated clubs than they have in nine matches against the best of the league. Two at Newcastle, three at Watford, four at Norwich, two against Newcastle, two at Burnley. Liverpool conceded more than once in just two of the nine matches against the "Big Five": three in both games against Arsenal, matches that Liverpool drew and won.

There are lots of bad things that have happened in those matches. But there's also a lot of good things that Liverpool did against better opposition. I'll again remind that Liverpool consistently failed to perform or win against good opposition in the vast majority of matches under the previous manager.

We know where Liverpool need to improve: decision-making at both ends of the pitch. Better movement and intelligence in attack, the elimination of errors (especially when transitioning) in defense – something that's now cost Liverpool the opening goal in both matches this season. The players missing yesterday – Mané and/or Ojo in attack, as well as not using Sturridge as a winger; Matip, Sakho, Can, and Karius in defense – should all help in these regards.

Even after this dismal result, I still believe Liverpool have the players and manager to put it right. Ideally, that'll happen sooner rather than later.

20 August 2016

Liverpool 0-2 Burnley

Goals:
Vokes 2'
Gray 37'

One step forward, two steps back. The more things change...

This is where everything's gone wrong. This is where Liverpool have failed. Not away against good opposition, where Liverpool have space, where Liverpool over-perform. Not in the marquee matches. Away against teams that Liverpool *should* beat, away against teams Liverpool seem to assume they'll beat.

And then they don't. Because Liverpool perpetually struggle to break down a deep defense and Liverpool perpetually do something stupid in defense.

It's made vastly worse, and vastly more difficult when you unnecessarily concede in the second minute. That's when you get 0-3 at Watford and 0-2 at West Ham and 1-3 at Swansea and countless other matches in seasons past.

This match saw every one of Liverpool's previous failings, exacerbated ad infinitum.

Liverpool concede early because they gave the ball away in their own half. Liverpool concede later on a counter-attack with everyone upfield. Liverpool routinely and horrifically fail with everything in the attacking third. Liverpool resort to speculative-at-best shots from distance that almost totally fail to trouble Tom Heaton.

Liverpool haven't been able to break down teams who sit deep and are well-organized for so many seasons in a row it's not even funny. Yes, it happened less with Luis Suarez, but it still happened with Luis Suarez. It was a distinct problem under Brendan Rodgers, and with nine months of Jürgen Klopp, it remains a problem.

And when that's the case, you probably shouldn't gift the opposition a goal within 90 seconds: Clyne's give-away to Gray with Liverpool trying to build from the back, the striker sliding a pass through to his partner for a wonderful finish from the top of the box, Liverpool's defense completely out of position because they're transitioning to attack and don't expect to concede possession in that position.

You may remember similar happening for Arsenal's first goal just six days ago.

Unlike last week, Coutinho couldn't conjure an equalizer from nothing – not for a lack of trying. And failing. Unlike last week, Burnley didn't give Liverpool an inch of space in the final third.

And when Liverpool conceded a second – Sturridge losing possession in the final third, Defour charging upfield, somehow getting around Klavan before finding Gray, who cleverly worked space for an impressive left-footed strike – that seemed that, despite 53 minutes remaining.

Incidentally, Liverpool have now conceded from each of the last five shots on-target they've faced. The only shot Mignolet's saved since the 7th minute against Arsenal was a penalty. Taken individually, it's hard to fault him for any of the goals, but it's also a trend we've seen before.

The struggle is real, and we've also seen that before. Liverpool completed almost six times as many passes as Burnley, Liverpool had 81% possession. Liverpool completed more than twice as many final third passes as Burnley completed passes in total. Liverpool took 26 shots, Burnley took three shots. But 17 of those Liverpool shots came from outside the box. Just five of those 26 shots were on-target: four from outside the box, and only two which remotely troubled the keeper. 23 Liverpool crosses, but just three found a Liverpool player, and just one – a set play in the last minute – led to a shot. 12 Liverpool corners, zero chances created.

The 4-3-3 formation seemed a problem, weak and uncreative in midfield, without the space needed for runners to make an impact. Sturridge ostensibly on the right seemed a problem, putting Liverpool's best natural goal-scorer further away from goal. Milner rather than Our New Favorite Scapegoat seemed a problem, Liverpool missing width and pace on the left. The substitutions seemed meaningless – Origi for Sturridge, Moreno for Milner, Grujic for Lallana – just different pegs in the same problem holes with the game probably already gone. It's easy to scream, "play 4-2-3-1, play 4-4-2, do something different!" But we've seen Liverpool similarly bad in similar matches with different players, different formations, and different managers.

Let's be fair to the opposition. Burnley's shape was fantastic; Burnley's center-backs blocked, headed, and cleared everything; Burnley's two goals were exceptionally well-taken. But Liverpool seem to have a special talent for making the opposition look that good.

This couldn't have gone worse. The players were bad, the tactics were bad, the substitutions didn't help. The only positive is that no one got hurt.

Well, that and Liverpool might learn a lesson. It is only the second week of the season, after all. That they haven't yet doesn't bode well, but we needed the reminder. Not everything was fixed with last week's euphoric win. There are more matches like this than there are matches like last week's.

There are still miles upon miles to go to even come close to achieving anything.

19 August 2016

Liverpool at Burnley 08.20.16

10am ET, live in the US on NBC Sports

Last four head-to-head:
2-0 Liverpool (h) 03.04.15
1-0 Liverpool (a) 12.26.14
4-0 Liverpool (a) 04.25.10
4-0 Liverpool (h) 10.12.09

Last match:
Liverpool: 4-3 Arsenal (a)
Burnley: 0-1 Swansea (h)

Referee: Lee Mason

Guess at a line-up:
Mignolet
Clyne Lovren Klavan Milner
Can Wijnaldum
Lallana Firmino Coutinho
Sturridge

With Sadio Mané almost certainly out due to a slight shoulder injury, Liverpool have two options: either the same formation as at Arsenal, with Can coming into midfield and Lallana shifting into attack, or a switch to 4-2-3-1 with either Sturridge or Origi up front, Lallana-Firmino-Coutinho in the line of three, and two from Wijnaldum, Henderson, and Can in midfield.

This, much more than last week's match, will be evidence of how determined Klopp is to use a 4-3-3 formation this season. On paper, it's a match seemingly better suited for a 4-2-3-1. Liverpool will have a lot more of the ball. Liverpool will need less of the breaking-the-lines counter-attack from midfield, with less emphasis on pressing in midfield. Liverpool will need more cutting edge up front: attackers capable of going around and through a resilient defense and single-handedly creating and scoring chances when there are seven or eight opposition players behind the ball.

But 4-3-3 has seemed the preferred formation so far this short season, and I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see it again, with Sturridge/Origi again left out, or with one as the central striker, Firmino moving to the right, and three from Lallana, Wijnaldum, Henderson, and Can in midfield.

The other line-up question is, unsurprisingly, at left back. Will it be Milner or Moreno? Too many pixels, too many words, too much ink has been written, said, and spilled about Moreno's performance last week. We know it wasn't good, but it also wasn't as bad as made out. And in a match like tomorrow's should be, Liverpool could need his pace and width. But Milner's fit again, and, yes, Moreno wasn't good last week. Milner's steadier, Milner's a better crosser, and Milner can get up and down the pitch as well, if not as quickly. We need to see what Milner's capable of in this position if he's going to be used there with any regularity this season, and tomorrow's match should be a decent opportunity to do so.

Jöel Matip's also back from injury (while Sakho and Lucas aren't far off), but I'd be surprised if he takes the place of either Klavan or Lovren. I suspect his first appearance will be Liverpool's cup tie at Burton Albion next Tuesday.

Burnley struggled at home against Swansea on opening day, a tepid 0-1 loss with the visitors scoring late. Less possession, worse passing, and seven fewer shots, despite being on their own ground, and being a newly-promoted side looking to impress against what might be one of their rivals for relegation. The loss was Burnley's first in a league match since December 2015, finishing the second half of their Championship-winning campaign unbeaten. Welcome back to the Premier League.

That said, basically all of Burnley's chances came from either set plays or counter-attacks, even though they were at home, even though they were against Swansea. And we all know how much Liverpool love messing up at least one of those opportunities in matches that Liverpool are supposed to win.

Burnley's XI will pretty much be the same as last week's. Heaton; Lowton, Keane, Mee, Ward; Boyd, Marney, Defour, Arfield; Gray, Vokes. The only change is in midfield: record signing Steven Defour replacing recently sold David Jones. Jon Flanagan is, of course, ineligible due to the terms of his loan.

It'll be 4-4-2, it'll be two compact lines of four, it'll be reliant on keeping Liverpool out and hoping Andre Gray or Sam Vokes can conjure something on the break. Gray scored 23 goals last season, and had chances last week. He just couldn't take them. That probably won't last.

More than half of Burnley's likely XI were a part of the sides which faced Liverpool in 2014-15. Which twice lost to Liverpool in 2014-15 without scoring. Both of those games were too close for comfort, both saw Burnley defend reasonably well, but both saw Burnley struggle to create anything in Liverpool's half, with one shot on-target (from 26 in total) over 180 minutes.

Don't do anything dumb in defense, and prove that this is a better attack than we saw in away matches where Liverpool were heavily favored last season. We still remember the 0-2 at Newcastle and at 0-3 Watford, the 1-3 at Swansea and 1-1 at West Brom.

Last week was a tremendous, if unnecessarily frightening, way to start the campaign. But this will be an entirely different challenge than last week, one which has often been harder for Liverpool to navigate.

15 August 2016

Visualized: Liverpool 4-3 Arsenal

Match data from Stats Zone, except average player position from Liverpool FC.


"It was a game of contrast between two halves but I felt as well that mentally we kept going and we have been absolutely remarkable on that front. But I believe that the first goal was a big shock for us because we didn’t see that coming in the first half and maybe we didn’t recover from that." – Arsene Wenger

Not really.

No matter how bad Liverpool seemed in the first half – and it was pretty bad! – Arsenal didn't do much to Liverpool. Yes, Arsenal pressed effectively, taking advantage of Liverpool's struggles playing out from the back and the unfamiliar and underwhelming midfield. But Arsenal took fewer shots. Arsenal struggled to get its out-of-position lone striker into the game far more than Liverpool did. Arsenal created just one clear-cut chance: Walcott's penalty, completely unnecessary and unforgivable from Moreno. Arsenal's goal came from another self-induced horror show, with Lallana conceding possession and Moreno charging heedlessly upfield.

Meanwhile, Liverpool still had decent chances from Firmino (both missed), Mané (blocked), Klavan (blocked), and Wijnaldum (saved). 0-0 wouldn't have been an undue scoreline, far more deserved than the unfathomable 0-0 in this fixture last season where both sides where vastly better.

So if 0-0 would have been merited, it's hard to complain about 1-1. Yes, Liverpool needed an absolutely mind-boggling free kick from Coutinho to level matters, and yes, that probably did knock Arsenal for a loop (although they did have the same 15-minute break that Liverpool had to recover). But then Liverpool had that second half, as thoroughly dominating Arsenal in the opening 20 minutes as anyone's thoroughly dominated Arsenal, permanently camped in Arsenal half, with six shots to none, three goals to none, and something like 65% possession. From Coutinho's opener to Mané for Liverpool's fourth, Liverpool didn't put a single shot off-target: five shots on-target (four goals), two blocked.

For the most part, the match was even: from 1' to 45' and from 65' to 90'. But in those 20 minutes, Liverpool blew Arsenal completely out of every body of water. And that's why Liverpool deservedly won the match.

Arsenal were out-shot at home just three times last season: narrowly by Tottenham and Chelsea in a 1-1 draw and 0-1 loss respectively, and massively in a 2-1 win against Manchester City, where Arsenal scored two first-half goals and proceeded to hold the the defending champions at arm's length.

Two of those three matches – 0-1 Chelsea and 2-1 City – were the only two times that Arsenal were held under 10 shots at the Emirates last season. Despite conceding those three goals, Liverpool – for the most part – did well at both ends of the pitch, even if the middle was a bit shakier (especially in the first half).

As I've frequently mentioned, Liverpool's shot selection was fairly terrible last season, routinely settling for (or forced to take) too many shots from distance. Only 53.9% of Liverpool's 629 shots came inside the box last season, only five teams had a lower proportion of inside-the-box shots.

12 of Liverpool's 16 shots yesterday – 75% – came from inside the box, a proportion equalled or bettered in just three league matches last season: 1-3 at United (where Liverpool took just eight shots), 1-1 at Everton, and 1-0 against Swansea.

To be fairer, Liverpool were usually better in this regard against tougher opposition. 73% inside the box at Arsenal last season (15 shots), 62% at Chelsea (16 shots), 71% at City (14 shots). But not in all of the away games, with just 33% at Tottenham (12 shots) and 36% at Leicester (14 shots).

Liverpool's shooting, Liverpool's scoring, and Liverpool's result yesterday weren't completely out of the ordinary away from home against good opponents under Jürgen Klopp. I'm sure you remember 3-1 at Chelsea and 4-1 at Manchester City. Liverpool drew 0-0 with Tottenham in Klopp's first match. Klopp's sides have now travelled to Stamford Bridge, the Etihad, White Hart Lane, and the Emirates, and are unbeaten, with three wins and one draw, with a +6 goal difference (11 scored, five conceded). I'm quite tempted to say "bring on Old Trafford and Goodison," but you know how I feel about tempting fate.

Nonetheless, this was the first time Arsenal conceded four goals at the Emirates in more than seven years, since a 4-1 loss to Chelsea in May 2009. These are the only two matches where Arsenal conceded four at the Emirate since the stadium opened a decade ago. As mentioned in the match review and in numerous other places, it's only the second time that Liverpool have won at Arsenal in the last 16 seasons, in both league and cup competition.

Liverpool scored from a set play – having scored just two direct free kicks in all competitions last season. Liverpool scored twice from extended, patient, probing build-up, including that unbelievable, 19-pass, 1:17-long third goal. And Liverpool scored from a counter-attack blitz, winning possession then letting Mané do Mané. The goals were varied, and the attacks were varied, and Liverpool profited immensely.

And while Liverpool's scoring feats, especially in the 20-minute post-halftime blitz, garnered all the headlines, Liverpool's killing of the game after conceding a third was nearly as impressive.



Liverpool mostly restricted Arsenal to the middle third and the right flank, keeping Arsenal out of dangerous positions. Liverpool weren't massively out-possessed, doing reasonably well in maintaining possession once winning possession and trying to get into Arsenal's half. But at the same time, when Liverpool had to hoof clear, Liverpool were happy to hoof clear and regroup. Liverpool took the only two shots during this stretch: Firmino and Henderson's apparently on-target efforts necessarily blocked.

And Liverpool's secure defense wasn't down to a supreme tackling or intercepting performance, with Arsenal forced to make more defensive actions to stop potential Liverpool attacks rather than vice versa. Liverpool were simply well-organized, with two solid bands of five and four in midfield and defense. Liverpool stayed in position and stayed compact without dropping too deep. Klavan and Lovren were both impressive, heading and hoofing multiple crosses clear. And Liverpool made sure not to give away stupid, dangerous free kicks, committing just three fouls – all deep in Arsenal's half – while winning four time-wasting free kicks in the middle third.

But Liverpool would still need help. Arsenal twice made it into Liverpool's box in added time. Walcott stood on the ball and fell over in the first instance (albeit with three Liverpool defenders in position to possibly block or tackle); Cazorla's cross hit Monreal in the back after a lay-off in the second instance. Luck's good and being good is good, but it's always best to be lucky and good.

Yes, Arsenal have been consistently poor on opening day for a while now, with a record of 1W-3D-3L since 2010-11. Yes, Arsenal missed Koscielny, Mertesacker, and Gabriel in defense, and Özil and Giroud in attack. Yes, Liverpool have been better away from home against good sides, especially compared to Liverpool's record – both home and away, but more so away – against the lesser lights who won't and don't give Liverpool space to play or space to counter. Yes, Liverpool still have multiple areas where improvement's needed.

But this is still a very welcome way to start the campaign. The next goal is making those phenomenal 20 minutes happen more regularly. Liverpool need to hit these heights – heights we infrequently saw last season, but saw nonetheless – with much more consistency.

14 August 2016

Liverpool 4-3 Arsenal

Goals:
Walcott 31'
Coutinho 45+1' 56'
Lallana 49'
Mané 63'
Oxlade-Chamberlain 64'
Chambers 76'

If we're in for 38 matches like there, I'm not gonna make it. None of us will. No one gets out of here alive.

That was bananas. And wholly unexpected after a tire fire of a first half. Arsenal were no great shakes – not atypical in an opening day match – but Liverpool's midfield was broken, Liverpool couldn't piece together few-and-far-between bits of promise in attack, and Liverpool continued to do some incredibly dumb things in its own half.

It started, unsurprisingly, with Alberto Moreno, our new favorite scapegoat. And, at times, rightfully so. Like when he brainlessly dives in on Walcott after Henderson's failed clearance on the edge of the box, a clear, needless penalty.

Mignolet saved Walcott's mediocre spot kick, but we weren't out of the woods. Ball don't lie, etc. Barely a minute later, Lallana turned into traffic when trying to play out of defense and is cleverly robbed by Coquelin, his tackle falling to Iwobi, who found Walcott in miles of space where Moreno should have been. To be slightly fairer to our new favorite scapegoat, his job is often to burst forward quickly, providing width and an outlet down the left, but you can't help but think he should be smarter in that position. Maybe wait under Liverpool actually establish some semblance of possession? This time, Walcott made no mistake with this finish, arrowed into the far corner under Lovren's attempted block and a sprawling goalkeeper.

But Coutinho single-handedly redeemed the half, winning a foul on 45 minutes before smashing in an unstoppable free kick from 30 yards out. Our magical unicorn, once again attempting to score Liverpool's goal of the season in the first match of said season, for the second year running. Level at intermission and lucky to be so.

And there was that second half. That's what Liverpool are capable of, for both good and evil. Three goals in less than 15 minutes and nearly a fourth. Then two goals conceded in 11 minutes, from switching off and then a set play.

Coutinho remained the epicenter of everything good in attack, first releasing Wijnaldum with a typically tricky blind outside-of-the-boot throughball. Wijnaldum crossed to Lallana, seemingly losing the opportunity by taking it on his chest but actually creating the space to get away from Monreal and somehow beat Cech at the near post. Seven minutes later, Coutinho finished off a 19-pass move, charging into the box to convert Clyne's low cross in front of a slow-to-react Rob Holding. And two minutes after that, he should have had a hat-trick, but a shot similar to his previous goal was a foot too close to Cech.

Thankfully, Mané soon got Liverpool's fourth, a move that almost immediately justified both his price tag and hype. Lallana's pass over the top found him in space, his speed taking him behind both Monreal and Chambers before his footwork took him around and through Monreal and Chambers, cutting in from wide right before unleashing a rocket left-footer. That's what he was bought for: a release valve over the top, pace, trickery, and goals goals goals with either foot.

Liverpool would need that fourth.

That should have been it. Liverpool were three up against a demoralized Arsenal, who had also lost both Iwobi and Ramsey through injury. But, because Liverpool, it wasn't, and because Arsenal, it was the accidental substitutes who changed the game.

First, with Liverpool still glorying in their fourth goal, Oxlade-Chamberlain broke down Liverpool's right, released by the other substitute Cazorla, somehow cutting between Clyne and Lallana before a deflected shot squirmed past Mignolet. Then, with Arsenal actually almost starting to believe, and at least reasserting possession and control, Liverpool failed when defending a set play. To be fair, it was immaculate delivery by Cazorla and Chambers jumping highest; well-taken and well-scored. There was little that Liverpool could do about it aside from not conceding the free kick in the first place. Shit happens. But shit happens to Liverpool too often.

Sigh. There were still 15 minutes plus injury time to go. Liverpool were rocking, and all the memories of Southampton, Newcastle, etc. from last season came roaring back.

But for all the nail-biting and heart palpitations, Arsenal didn't take a shot after scoring their third. Substitutes Can and Origi were a massive factor in that: the former calming and solidifying the midfield, the latter both a bother and holding play up well when Liverpool hoofed clear. The back four looked miles better, especially Klavan and our new favorite scapegoat, making sure the speedy Walcott and Bellerin had little space on that flank. Liverpool won free kicks and corners and Liverpool time-wasted. By hook and by crook, Liverpool held on.

Deep breaths. It was the best of Liverpool and the worst of Liverpool, the back-to-back 90 minutes against Barcelona and Mainz smashed into a single match. It was Liverpool's potential up front but Liverpool's terror at the back, but it was also the same surprising ability to kill the game that we saw at Dortmund last season.

Liverpool almost never win at Arsenal. Before today, they'd done it just once in the last 15 years, in 20 visits. No matter if Arsenal were missing their three best center-backs, no matter if it's the first game of the season, no matter if Liverpool came too close for comfort to losing a three-goal lead. Any win at Arsenal is a good win.

As we saw in preseason and hoped was true, there's a real team in there. There's a very, very capable blitzkrieg attack, ability in midfield, and the defense really doesn't look bad most of the time as long as no one does something dumb. For all the flaws, this is a very promising start. But Liverpool still have quite a long way to go to put it all together.

Liverpool just scored four goals at Arsenal and won there for just the second time in 15 years, and still have that much room to potentially grow.